It's been a memorable year for David Toms and it could get even better for the US veteran at this week's McGladrey Classic at St. Simons Island in Georgia.
Toms - Could make a good year even better.
It's been a memorable year for David Toms and it could get even better for the US veteran at this week's McGladrey Classic at St. Simons Island in Georgia.
So far in 2011, the 44-year-old has posted a first PGA Tour win since 2006, come within an inch of winning the Players Championship, secured a spot on the US Presidents Cup team and been presented with the Payne Stewart award for his services to golf and commitment to charity.
Toms also returned to the scene of his finest hour - Atlanta Athletic Club where he won the 2001 USPGA - and almost pulled off victory again, eventually finishing three shots back in tied fourth.
That Toms should flourish in Atlanta again was no real surprise. Throughout his career he's shown a liking for the Southern States and a return trip to Georgia bodes well given the way he's played in this corner of America in 2011.
Looking at the leading stroke averages from this year's events in the Eastern Seaboard States (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina) and Toms, at 69.66, is almost half a stroke better than anyone else and he's secured that sub-70 figure over the course of 32 rounds.
This week's venue, the Seaside Course at Sea Island, looks a perfect fit in numerous ways.
It rewards straight hitting and good putting, is a modest 7,055 yards and has a par of 70.
Talk about being right up Toms' street!
The American Ryder Cup star is fifth in Driving Accuracy, sixth in Greens In Regulation and 17th in Strokes Gained - Putting in 2011.
Toms' last two wins have come on par 70s while the vast majority of his 13 career victories have come on bermudagrass greens, the putting surfaces he has this week.
The theory that the course should suit is backed up by Toms' performance in this event last year when it staged the tournament for the first time.
He opened 64-66 to top the halfway leaderboard and eventually finished tied third after dropping a couple of shots late on.
Given all the ticks he puts in the right boxes, a price of 16/1 wouldn't be unreasonable so the 25/1 is more than acceptable. Get stuck in with a good each-way punt at Ladbrokes who go six places.
Jerry Kelly likes this style of golf and has a record to prove it.
He's a massive fan of the Sony Open in Hawaii (a tournament Toms has won) and that shares several similar traits - the coastal location, a short par 70 course and bermuda greens.
Kelly also likes this part of the world.
His best results this season have come in the nearby States of Florida (3rd at the Honda) and North Carolina (4th at the Wyndham) while his current form is pretty good too.
Kelly has played six times since failing to make the weekend in The Open at Royal St. George's and his finishes read: 34-26-4-24-10-16.
On first glance, there doesn't seem anything too remarkable about Kelly's 33rd place here last year but dig a little deeper and you'll find that he was 124th after round one before shooting 63 (one off the course record), 68, 69 over the final 54 holes.
Third in Driving Accuracy, Kelly should be able to attack the flags and if he putts well the 70/1 could look excellent business.
There's no shortage of players vying to be backed this week as this place has started to rival Scottsdale as the place for PGA Tour players to set up home.
St. Simons Island residents playing this week include Zach Johnson, Chris Kirk, Lucas Glover, Matt Kuchar, Jonathan Byrd and Charles Howell III and, in fact, Mrs Kuchar and Mrs Kirk are on the cover of this month's Elegant Island Living!
Add in the obvious claims of Money List-hunting Webb Simpson (a two-way tied 15th would see him overtake Luke Donald at the top) and Rickie Fowler (fresh from his win in Korea) and it really is a tricky task trying to settle on a third or fourth pick.
However, the one I like at the prices is last year's winner Heath Slocum.
Another course with similar features to this one is Hilton Head and that has a reputation for throwing up repeat winners. Not so long ago (2007-2008), Boo Weekley won it back-to-back while Payne Stewart and Davis Love also defended there.
Slocum is a tasty 80/1 to go back-to-back so given that his course form is exemplary that must mean his current form is poor.
Well, that's not quite true.
Although his bare results aren't great his last 13 rounds read: 67-70-64-67-69-70-69-69-70-72-69-70-68. That's an average of 68.77.
Stats-wise, he's secondin Driving Accuracy and third in Greens In Regulation this year so if he can find his touch on the greens (he putted them well last year) he could be right in the mix again.
"I like the golf course a lot. I think it suits my eye well," said Slocum last year.
"I definitely think that it's a placement golf course. Accuracy is a premium. The way I always try to play golf is to go to my strength, which is trying to hit it straight, get it on the green and make some putts."
Slocum's straight hitting has helped him win four times on the PGA Tour and that stacks up well against some of the others who are a third of his price.
Although he's not right on home soil, Slocum lives in Georgia and will have plenty of support so, all in all, he has plenty going for him.
Finally, I'll have a punt on a player at three-figure odds who should be suited to this course.
Paul Goydos is a former winner of the Sony Open so goes well on coastal par 70s and earlier this year he was third in the Players Championship at Sawgrass which again highlighted his ability to play well on courses requiring placement.
Two starts ago he finished third in Las Vegas and said it was the first time he'd played well in a while after cracking a rib.
Goydos was hoping that would kick-start a Fall Series charge but he admitted that the rains at last week's Frys.com Open had turned it into a bombers' paradise and hence it was no surprise that he finished tied 72nd.
But back on a short course that will play to his strengths, there's good reason to believe he can perform well again.
The Monty Python fan has racked up four top 10s in his last 12 starts and, looking further back, eight top fives in his last 62 starts (13%).
As each-way punters, it's top fives we're interested in so getting over 30/1 for the place part of the bet is good business.
golf365.com